TLT vs XLY — 21-Year Performance Comparison
Long-Term Treasuries vs Consumer Discretionary — backtested 2004–2024
XLY wins$118,156 vs $20,150 on $10,000 over 21 years
TLTLong-Term Treasuries
Final value$20,150
CAGR+3.4%
Max drawdown-38.0%
Best year+34% (2011)
Years won6 of 21
XLYConsumer Discretionary
Final value$118,156
CAGR+12.5%
Max drawdown-37.0%
Best year+44% (2013)
Years won15 of 21
Growth of $10,000
2004–2024TLTXLY
TLT$20,150
XLY$118,156
50/50 mix$59,653
50/50 blend: $59,653 (+8.9%/yr CAGR)
Splitting equally between TLT and XLY would have landed between the two — slightly lower CAGR than XLY but less volatility. Try a custom split →
Year-by-year: TLT vs XLY
| Year | TLT | XLY | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | -8.1% | +30.6% | XLY |
| 2023 | +2.8% | +41.1% | XLY |
| 2022 | -31.2% | -37.0% | TLT |
| 2021 | -4.6% | +24.1% | XLY |
| 2020 | +18.1% | +33.0% | XLY |
| 2019 | +14.1% | +27.9% | XLY |
| 2018 | -1.6% | -0.5% | XLY |
| 2017 | +9.2% | +22.9% | XLY |
| 2016 | +1.2% | +6.0% | XLY |
| 2015 | -1.8% | +10.1% | XLY |
| 2014 | +27.3% | +9.7% | TLT |
| 2013 | -13.4% | +43.6% | XLY |
| 2012 | +2.6% | +23.8% | XLY |
| 2011 | +34.0% | +6.8% | TLT |
| 2010 | +9.1% | +27.7% | XLY |
| 2009 | -21.8% | +41.6% | XLY |
| 2008 | +33.9% | -33.5% | TLT |
| 2007 | +10.3% | +1.2% | TLT |
| 2006 | +0.7% | +17.3% | XLY |
| 2005 | +8.8% | +1.0% | TLT |
| 2004 | +7.9% | +12.5% | XLY |
More comparisons
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