TLT vs SPY — 21-Year Performance Comparison
Long-Term Treasuries vs S&P 500 — backtested 2004–2024
SPY wins$78,402 vs $20,150 on $10,000 over 21 years
TLTLong-Term Treasuries
Final value$20,150
CAGR+3.4%
Max drawdown-38.0%
Best year+34% (2011)
Years won6 of 21
SPYS&P 500
Final value$78,402
CAGR+10.3%
Max drawdown-37.0%
Best year+32% (2013)
Years won15 of 21
Growth of $10,000
2004–2024TLTSPY
TLT$20,150
SPY$78,402
50/50 mix$47,246
50/50 blend: $47,246 (+7.7%/yr CAGR)
Splitting equally between TLT and SPY would have landed between the two — slightly lower CAGR than SPY but less volatility. Try a custom split →
Year-by-year: TLT vs SPY
| Year | TLT | SPY | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | -8.1% | +23.3% | SPY |
| 2023 | +2.8% | +26.3% | SPY |
| 2022 | -31.2% | -18.2% | SPY |
| 2021 | -4.6% | +28.7% | SPY |
| 2020 | +18.1% | +18.4% | SPY |
| 2019 | +14.1% | +31.5% | SPY |
| 2018 | -1.6% | -4.4% | TLT |
| 2017 | +9.2% | +21.8% | SPY |
| 2016 | +1.2% | +12.0% | SPY |
| 2015 | -1.8% | +1.4% | SPY |
| 2014 | +27.3% | +13.7% | TLT |
| 2013 | -13.4% | +32.4% | SPY |
| 2012 | +2.6% | +16.0% | SPY |
| 2011 | +34.0% | +2.1% | TLT |
| 2010 | +9.1% | +15.1% | SPY |
| 2009 | -21.8% | +26.5% | SPY |
| 2008 | +33.9% | -37.0% | TLT |
| 2007 | +10.3% | +5.5% | TLT |
| 2006 | +0.7% | +15.8% | SPY |
| 2005 | +8.8% | +4.9% | TLT |
| 2004 | +7.9% | +10.9% | SPY |
More comparisons
Build your portfolio
Mix TLT + SPY with custom allocations
Try a 70/30 or 40/60 split — or add up to 3 more ETFs. See exactly how your custom portfolio would have performed.
Open Portfolio Builder →Past performance does not guarantee future results.